Whereas the Bitcoin halving just isn’t anticipated till March 13, 2024, in line with Coinwarz information, Litecoin buyers can already stay up for the historically bullish occasion as quickly as this yr. In response to NiceHash’s estimate, the Litecoin halving will happen in 189 days, on July 19, 2023.
The approaching halving has prompted analyst Rekt Capital to look at Litecoin’s historic worth developments earlier than and after the halving so as to present a prediction for the approaching months.
285% Litecoin Rally In The Playing cards?
Rekt Capital notes that LTC tends to rally quite a bit earlier than halving. Earlier than halving 1, the value bottomed in 122 days and rose +820% afterward. Earlier than halving 2, LTC bottomed in 243 days and rallied by 550%.
After each halvings, nevertheless, the value positive aspects had been even stronger. Because the chart under from Rekt Capital exhibits, Litecoin is up +14,200% after the primary halving, and after the second halving, it was “nonetheless” 1,574%. From this, the analyst derives the historic tendency that LTC tends to rally stronger after the halving than earlier than.
Litecoin worth after the halvings | Supply: Twitter @rektcapital
Nonetheless, this doesn’t imply that investing earlier than the halving just isn’t traditionally profitable in case you discover the fitting time to position a promote order. In response to the analyst, it may be seen from historic information that LTC sees a robust rally previous to the halving earlier than the value drops sharply instantly.
The Litecoin worth declined by -73% within the first 578 days after halving. The second halving led the value to drop as a lot as -83% earlier than it discovered its backside after 458 days. “For that cause it’s vital to grasp when an LTC pre-halving rally tends to prime,” the analyst says.
Because the chart under exhibits, LTC peaked 31 days earlier than the occasion the primary time and 61 days earlier than the second event. Offered this pattern continues, the LTC rally may cease as early as 92 days pre-halving – which might be in Could 2023, in line with Rekt Capital.
Litecoin worth pre-halving | Supply: Twitter @rektcapital
Nonetheless, the rally may additionally finish as early as April if the times double. It’s subsequently additionally attention-grabbing to scrutinize how lengthy the rallies lasted when it comes to time. The primary LTC pre-halving rally lasted for simply 90 days, whereas the second offered a great 180 days of pleasure amongst buyers. Subsequently, the analyst concludes:
It appears like $LTC pre-halving rallies could also be lengthening in time. If this upcoming LTC Pre-Halving rally lasts twice so long as the earlier PH rally, then this rally will final ~twelve months. Which finds confluence with a Could 2023 prime.
When it comes to how a lot the LTC worth may rise within the months main as much as halving, the analyst believes that the rally may propel the value as excessive as 285% from its backside. Such a rally would imply that LTC has already captured sure pre-halving positive aspects and will push as much as the $115 zone.
That is additionally the purpose the place the pre-halving 2019 rally peaked. LTC additionally briefly held assist at this degree after its 2021 bull market excessive to kind the macro downtrend.
Litecoin halving rally | Supply: Twitter @rektcapital
What Occurs After The Halving?
Put up-halving, LTC may face a robust retracement primarily based on historic developments earlier than an accumulation part begins. The lows in each circumstances had been larger lows in comparison with the pre-halving low. This might imply that LTC will fall between 72% and 77%.
The secret is to “look ahead to deep post-halving retrace adopted by lengthy consolidation in an approx 70%-wide vary,” the analyst defined. The breakout from the buildup part may happen after at the very least 400 days post-halving in July 2023, in line with the (nonetheless brief) historical past. In conclusion, Rekt Capital says:
This might coincide with a July 2024 LTC breakout. This might make sense as this #LTC breakout would happen after the 2024 Bitcoin Halving: It might additionally tie in with BTC’s basic pattern reversal which happens in a typical Candle 4 within the 4 yr cycle.
At press time, the LTC worth was up 1.5% within the final 24 hours, buying and selling at $82.43.
Litecoin is up 1.5% (24h) | Supply: LTCUSD on TradingView.com
Featured picture from Michael Fortsch / Unsplash, Chart from TradingView.com