If FTX is sparking new Bitcoin (BTC) bear market lows, BTC value motion has additional to fall to match Mt. Gox.
Information from on-chain analytics agency Glassnode confirms that the “Mt. Gox bear market” virtually a decade in the past nonetheless beats the 2022 lows.
FTX vs. Mt. Gox: Identical, similar however totally different
With the fallout from the FTX chapter scandal nonetheless unfolding, questions stay over what number of main crypto entities will likely be affected and the way huge trade losses will likely be.
BTC/USD fell over 25% final week because the ramifications grew to become recognized and has did not get better a lot misplaced floor.
On the similar time, a number of comparisons to Mt. Gox have emerged: alleged mismanagement, poor safety and insider buying and selling exercise have all been cited as examples.
The uncooked knowledge, nevertheless, reveals some attention-grabbing further numbers to remember.
Mt. Gox imploded because of an enormous 840,000 BTC hack in February 2014. Simply months earlier than, Bitcoin had seen a recent all-time excessive of round $1,100, with Mt. Gox dealing with round 70% of all buying and selling exercise.
Within the months that adopted, Bitcoin misplaced as much as 85% of its worth versus that prime, bottoming out in January 2015 — virtually a 12 months after the hack.
This cycle grew to become the primary Bitcoin bear market witnessed on a large scale by hodlers, and it took till December 2017 for an additional all-time excessive to emerge.
Quick ahead to 2022, and at its latest two-year lows, BTC/USD was down 77% in slightly below a 12 months towards its newest all-time highs of $69,000.
With the timeframes comparable between FTX and Mt. Gox, the query going through analysts is whether or not BTC value motion will add one other 10% to its drawdown versus its prior peak — or worse.
As Cointelegraph reported, requires a return to $10,000 had been already in place even earlier than the FTX episode. The black swan chapter, others warned, has, in the meantime, set the crypto trade again a number of years.
BTC/USD % drawdown from all-time highs chart. Supply: Glassnode
What’s in a $400 million wipeout?
Evaluating FTX to the same black swan occasion from virtually ten years in the past could seem misplaced. Nevertheless, the numbers concerned are eerily comparable in some respects.
Associated: Bitcoin will shrug off FTX ‘black swan’ similar to Mt. Gox — evaluation
Mt. Gox misplaced 840,000 BTC, value on the time round $460 million. Earlier than happening, FTX had a Bitcoin stability of 20,000, in keeping with knowledge from on-chain analytics platform CryptoQuant — additionally value simply over $400 million.
As a fraction of market cap, nevertheless, this 12 months’s losses pale compared to the 2014 drawdown.
Bitcoin’s market cap in the beginning of March 2014 was $6.9 billion in comparison with $320 billion in the present day. The general crypto market cap in the present day is $834 billion, knowledge from CoinMarketCap confirms.
FTX Bitcoin stability chart. Supply: CryptoQuant
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